The final paper should begin with an Executive Summary (1 page) that presents key judgments in bullet form, followed by a Scope Note (1-2 paragraphs) that presents the paper’s parameters. The body of the paper (5-7 pages) should begin by presenting the overarching analytic argument followed by a clear presentation of the argument’s logic, its component judgments, and supporting data from the readings for each judgment. The body of the paper also should include an explanation of the SAT that was used and its impact on the analysis. The paper should conclude with a section describing the argument’s implications for the United States.
Group 2: continue and expand economic sanctions, such as trade tariffs, to modify Chinese behavior;
South China Sea Policy Option 2: Identification of the SAT
Refined Intelligence Question: Given the current conflict in the South China Sea (SCS), how would the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) respond and retaliate in the short, medium, and long-run to both economic sanctions on their state-owned enterprises and Visa restrictions of their officials if enacted by the United States (US) or another major foreign power?
Structured Analytic Technique (SAT) Outline and Proposal
Initial: Key Drivers (from SAT 1 Exercise). These techniques are an excellent way to begin exploring a topic and investigating the causality of an issue. Naturally, since we just completed a simulation with this very SAT (albeit in different groups) on the SCS it makes a lot of sense to incorporate this into our initial project proposal and future research phases.
Getting Started: Mind Map. This technique involves building a web of relationships for a concept or policy that can be used to assess how they are related and influenced by other variables (Dewantara, 2019). It is useful in developing ideas beyond simple Brainstorming to understand and solve an existing problem, like how certain policies might effectively modify Chinese behavior in the SCS. Using a Mind Map also enables analysts to potentially develop a solution that refrains from damaging other factors of importance (Swestyani et al. 2018). May be useful to utilize open-source software to visually diagram the map or images for later techniques.
Finding and Assessing Information: Multiple Scenarios Generation. The primary SAT for our research proposal. This technique is useful for exploring the many ways a situation might evolve, anticipating surprise developments, and generating field requirements when dealing with a highly ambiguous threat and helps analysts by sensitizing them to new outcomes and makes them more likely to consider previously unanticipated situations that might develop (Pherson & Heuer, 2021, p. 272). The goal of our intelligence question is to essentially understand the effects of sanctions on Chinese enterprises and how the Chinese might retaliate, so a Foresight Technique like Multiple Scenarios (that builds quite nicely off of Key Drivers and Mind Map and feeds well into a Decision Support (DS) Technique) seems most useful. Success of this technique depends on avoiding traditional mindsets and the common Mirror Imaging bias.
Building an Argument: Decision Matrix. This technique helps analysts identify the course of action that best achieves specified goals or preferences and can be used to support a decision maker’s consideration of alternative courses of action by making it easier to visually understand areas of disagreement or hidden assumptions (Pherson & Heuer, 2021, pp. 329-330). Particularly useful for the SCS conflict because there are multiple, conflicting policy choices; however, we may choose another DS technique if it is more appropriate for our presentation.
Conveying the Message: Key Assumptions Check. While explicitly designated for the last phase in the research process, this technique will be used to periodically re-examine and re-evaluate both the context, details, and perspectives of the issue so that we can provide the best intelligence product to our consumers and most effective support service to policymakers.
Dewantara, D. (2019). The Effect of Learning with The Mindmapping Method Using Imindmap towards Student’s Analytical Ability. Indonesian Journal of Science and Education, 3(1), 10-14.
Pherson, R. H., & Heuer, R. J. (2021). Structured Analytic Techniques For Intelligence Analysis. Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE, CQ Press.
Swestyani, S., Masykuri, M., Prayitno, B. A., Rinanto, Y., & Widoretno, S. (2018, May). An analysis of logical thinking using mind mapping. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Vol. 1022, No. 1, p. 012020). IOP Publishing.
Please do the body component of the essay.